20 pp., Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL. Diop, E. S., A. Soumare, N. Diallo, and A. Guisse, 1997: Recent changes of the mangroves of the Saloum River Estuary, Senegal. These plants grow in moist forest understory areas that are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture.266. The topography of the region is diverse. The climate in the Southeast is tropical, meaning it's warm and humid much of the year. The SERCC is housed at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and was created in response to an assessment that identified various user needs for region al climate services in the Sou the ast. A. Collazo, R. Wershoven, V. Guzmn Hernndez, T. B. Stringell, A. Sanghera, P. B. Richardson, A. C. Broderick, Q. Phillips, M. Calosso, J. According to the article, [b]ecause losses are largest in regions that are already poorer on average, climate change tends to increase preexisting inequality in the United States.11 Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic composition of racial and ethnic groups in the region is important, because these characteristics are associated with health risk factors, disease prevalence, and access to care, which in turn may influence the degree of impact from climate-related threats. | Detail , Moore, S. K., V. L. Trainer, N. J. Mantua, M. S. Parker, E. A. Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 053. | Detail , Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Evolution of the US tornado database: 1954-2003. Mount Pleasant, located on South Carolinas coast, received 26.88 inches of rain, which is an extremely rare event. 6: Agriculture). Books, 2003: Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change. | Detail , Sun, G., S. Arumugam, P. V. Caldwell, P. A. Conrads, A. P. Covich, J. Authors with specific expertise in each of these areas were sought, and a draft outline built around these issues was developed. In some southeastern coastal areas, changes in salinity and water levels due to a number of complex interactions (including subsidence, availability of sediment, precipitation, and sea level rise) can happen so fast that local vegetation cannot adapt quickly enough and those areas become open water.9 Fire, hurricanes, and other disturbances have similar effects, causing ecosystems to cross thresholds at which dramatic changes occur over short time frames.31,32. The climate affects so much in the region, such as growing season, tourism, culture, and more. FEMA, 2016: Community Rating System (CRS) Communities and Their Classes. The project involved a series of constructed wetlands (see photo) used as the final stage of a wastewater treatment process that recharges groundwater and supplies surface reservoirs. Assessing Puerto Ricos Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate. Yando, E. S., M. J. Osland, J. M. Willis, R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, and M. W. Hester, 2016: Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: Using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plantsoil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools. Documenting Uncertainty: This assessment relies on two metrics to communicate the degree of Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). | Detail , 2014 National Climate Assessment. Some figures and images are copyright protected. Management Data Series No. Credits The amount of confidence associated with the historical rate of global sea level rise is impacted by the sparsity of tide gauge records and historical proxies as well as different statistical approaches for estimating sea level change. 17: Complex Systems). The Southeast is one of the most dynamic regions for forest change on the globe,269 though much of the change owes to intensive rotations of pine production and economic forces that drive frequent conversion between forest and agricultural uses in rural areas.270,271 Climate is expected to have an impact on the regions forests primarily through changes in moisture regimes.272 Species migration westward across the eastern United States in response to changing precipitation patterns has already been noted.273 Drought is likely to alter fire regimes and further interact with species distributions (see Key Message 3). This website is the digital version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment, produced in collaboration with the U.S. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 727-731, doi:10.1002/joc.1573. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts. URL As sea levels have risen locally in the last one hundred years, the storm water systems in these areas are no longer able to perform as designed. Synthesis Report. The prolonged inundation and lack of oxygen that results from extreme rainfall can also result in mortality, such as the dieback of critical foundation plant species, and other large impacts to natural systems.233 In combination, future increases in the frequency and severity of both extreme drought and extreme rainfall are expected to transform many ecosystems in the Southeast region. However, regional cooperation among local, state, and federal governments can greatly improve the success of adapting to impacts of climate change and sea level rise. A. Barras, G. D. Steyer, W. Sleavin, M. Fischer, H. Beck, N. Trahan, B. Griffin, and D. Heckman, Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana From 1932 to 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3164, Delfino, R. J., S. Brummel, J. Wu, H. Stern, B. Ostro, M. Lipsett, A. Winer, D. H. Street, L. Zhang, T. Tjoa, and D. L. Gillen, The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003, Doyle, T. W., K. W. Krauss, W. H. Conner, and A. S. From, Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise, Ebi, K. L., J. Balbus, P. L. Kinney, E. Lipp, D. Mills, M. S. ONeill, and M. Wilson, Ch. Sun, L., K. E. Kunkel, L. E. Stevens, A. Buddenberg, J. G. Dobson, and D. R. Easterling, 2015: Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Global sea level is very likely to rise by 0.30.6 feet by 2030, 0.51.2 feet by 2050, and 1.04.3 feet by 2100 under a range of scenarios from very low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5),51,52,62 which would result in increases in both the depth and frequency of coastal flooding (Figure 19.7).51 Under higher emissions scenarios (RCP8.5), global sea level rise exceeding 8 feet (and even higher in the Southeast) by 2100 cannot be ruled out.51 By 2050, many Southeast cities are projected to experience more than 30 days of high tide flooding regardless of scenario.63 In addition, more extreme coastal flood events are also projected to increase in frequency and duration.60 For example, water levels that currently have a 1% chance of occurring each year (known as a 100-year event) will be more frequent with sea level rise. Karl, Melillo, J.T., and Peterson, T.C., Eds. 27 pp., Puerto Rico Climate Change Council. Based on the subsequent authors meeting and input from NCA staff, the chapter outline and Key Messages were updated to reflect a risk-based framing in the context of a new set of Key Messages. SSRN, 64 pp. Littell, J. S., D. L. Peterson, K. L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C. H. Luce, 2016: A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Holding, C. V. Kappel, M. I. O'Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. Schwing, S. A. Thompson, and A. J. Richardson, 2013: Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Ziska, L. H., D. E. Gebhard, D. A. Frenz, S. Faulkner, B. D. Singer, and J. G. Straka, 2003: Cities as harbingers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, and public health. Aerial photos of Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana taken 45 years apart shows evidence of the effects of rising seas, sinking land, and human development. Fayetteville, AR. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Allen, C. D., A. K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. McDowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D. D. Breshears, E. H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J. Castro, N. Demidova, J.-H. Lim, G. Allard, S. W. Running, A. Semerci, and N. Cobb, 2010: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For example, the distribution of tropical herbivorous fish has been expanding in response to warmer waters, which has resulted in the tropicalization of some temperate marine ecosystems and decreases in the cover of valuable macroalgal plant communities.179 A decrease in the growth of sea turtles in the West Atlantic has been linked to higher ocean temperatures.237 Due to climate change, warming ocean temperatures in the coming decades are expected to transform many marine and coastal ecosystems across the Southeast. This was the seventh highest tide ever recorded in Charleston Harbor and the highest since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. 6: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Alexandria VA, 224 pp. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. 118. Perica, S., D. Martin, S. Pavlovic, I. Roy, M. S. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, M. Yekta, and Geoffrey Bonnin, 2013: Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Balch, J. K., B. It also has intense storms, like hurricanes. An analysis of ecological changes that have occurred in the past can help provide some context for anticipating and preparing for future ecological changes. Unlisted storyboards can be shared via a link, but otherwise will remain hidden. | Detail , Burkett, V. R., D. A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States. Natural systems in the region will have to become resistant and resilient to both too little water and too much water. URL Florida is the most populated . Forest cover ranges from almost 50% to 80% in these states, creating large areas of interface between populations and forests.262 Jobs in timber, logging, and support for agriculture and forestry totaled approximately 458,000.263 (See Ch. Living Marine Resources: National Marine Fisheries Service Concerns, Activities and Needs. For example, the Louisville, Kentucky, metro government conducted an urban heat management study and installed 145,000 square feet of cool roofs as part of their goal to lessen the risk of climate change impacts.28, The transmission of vector-borne diseases, which are spread by the bite of an animal such as a mosquito or tick, is complex and depends on a number of factors, including weather and climate, vegetation, animal host populations, and human activities (Ch. 7: Ecosystems). Looking ahead: Spring looks to be warm, wet, and mostly drought-free. Reduction of existing stresses can increase resilience. | Detail , Watts, D. M., D. S. Burke, B. While the Southeast is historically known for having a rural nature, a drastic shift toward a more urbanized region is underway. | Detail , ,, 2008: Economic Impact of Climate Change on Georgia: A Review and Assessment Conducted by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland. Climate In Southeast Region will sometimes glitch and take you a long time to try different solutions. | Detail , Devens, T., 2012: Phone Interview. More frequent extreme heat episodes and changing seasonal climates are projected to increase exposure-linked health impacts and economic vulnerabilities in the agricultural, timber, and manufacturing sectors. Nowacki, G. J., and M. D. Abrams, 2008: The demise of fire and mesophication of forests in the eastern United States. Miller, R., D. Arthur, B. Barami, A. Breck, S. Costa, K. Lewis, K. McCoy, and E. Morrison, 2016: Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative: Baseline Assessment of the Transportation Assets & Overview of Economic Analyses Useful in Quantifying Impacts. Burkett, V. R., D. A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. URL McKenney, D. W., J. H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P. Papadopol, K. Campbell, and M. F. Hutchinson, 2014: Change and evolution in the plant hardiness zones of Canada. Technological developments (such as a potential shift in transportation modes) will also affect the scope and location of risk within cities. These perigean tides, also known as king tides, occur twice a year and in many cities are causing what has been called nuisance or recurrent flooding (referred to herein as high tide flooding). USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), Washington, DC, accessed July 18, 2017. URL Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, J.L. A. | Detail , Howden, S. M., J. URL URL 6: Forests, KM 1). Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), Las Vegas, NV, 6 pp. URL There is very high confidence that southeastern cities will likely be impacted by climate change, especially in the areas of infrastructure and human health. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, 5 pp. US Reports 99593, 00-178, and 00-179. Gonzalez, C. G., A. Kaswan, R. Verchick, Y. Huang, N. Jamhour, and S. Bowen, 2016: Climate Change, Resilience, and Fairness: How Nonstructural Adaptation Can Protect and Empower Socially Vulnerable Communities on the Gulf Coast. 292 pp., U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C. | Detail , Farrell, D., A. Trotman, and C. Cox, 2010: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Drought Early Warning and Risk Reduction: A Case Study of the Caribbean Drought of 2009-2010. Environmental Health, 7, 1-12, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4. Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. In 2009, Puerto Rico hosted 3.5 million tourists who spent $3.5 billion.96 In 2012, Louisiana and Florida alone hosted more than 115 million visitors.97,98, The region has two of the most populous metropolitan areas in the country (Miami and Atlanta) and four of the ten fastest-growing metropolitan areas.95 Three of these (Palm Coast, FL, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, and Myrtle Beach area, SC) are along the coast and are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Nature Climate Change, 2, 884-888, doi:10.1038/nclimate1597. Climate of the Southeast U.S. NOAA Technical Report 142-2. URL NDRC, 2016: National Disaster Resilience Competition (NDRC): Grantee Profiles. The Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) is a collaborative federal, regional, state, and local interagency effort to improve drought early warning capacity and build long-term drought resilience throughout Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina, and Virginia. Census Bureau, 2015: Press release: New Census Bureau Population Estimates Reveal Metro Areas and Counties That Propelled Growth in Florida and the Nation. URL Jurjonas, M., and E. Seekamp, 2018: Rural coastal community resilience: Assessing a framework in eastern North Carolina. Southeastern cities may be more vulnerable than cities in other regions of the United States due to the climate being more conducive to some vector-borne diseases, the presence of multiple large coastal cities at low elevation that are vulnerable to flooding and storms, and a rapidly growing urban and coastal population.22,295,296, Many city and county governments, utilities, and other government and service organizations have already begun to plan and prepare for the impacts of climate change (e.g., Gregg et al. There is a need for more monitoring to document the extent and location of vulnerable areas (natural and human), and then research to assess how those impacts will affect productivity of key food and forest resources and human well-being. Mitchum, G. T., 2011: Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern United States: Past, Present and Future. The downloadable PDF is the official version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. The SERCC is housed at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and was created in response to an assessment that identified various user needs for regional climate services in the Southeast. Fire has historically played an important role in the region, and ecological diversity in many southeastern natural systems is dependent upon fire.115,116,134,189 Although the total area burned by wildfire is greatest in the western United States, the Southeast has the largest area burned by prescribed fire (see Case Study Prescribed Fire) and the highest number of wildfires.134,190 In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire.3,4,5,6 Moreover, rapid urban expansion near managed forests has the potential to reduce opportunities to use prescribed fire, which could lead to native species declines, increased wildfire occurrence, and economic and health impacts.134,191. Smith, A. The October 2015 event is among a series of devastating precipitation events that have occurred across the Southeast in recent years. Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, various pp. Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. Addington, R. N., S. J. Hudson, J. K. Hiers, M. D. Hurteau, T. F. Hutcherson, G. Matusick, and J. M. Parker, 2015: Relationships among wildfire, prescribed fire, and drought in a fire-prone landscape in the south-eastern United States. Snowfall: Southern New England snowfall averages around 35 inches per year while the upper mountainous regions often receive over 100 inches annually - to the delight of skiers and snowboarders. | Detail , Hewes, W., and K. Pitts, 2009: Natural Security: How Sustainable Water Strategies Are Preparing Communities for a Changing Climate. There are basically three types of adaptation options to rising sea levels: protect (such as building levees or other hard methods), accommodate (such as raising structures or using soft or natural protection measures such as wetlands restoration), and retreat.16,9 Individuals and communities are using all of these strategies. A third area of uncertainty is where and what adaptive plans and actions are being undertaken to avoid flooding and associated impacts on people, communities, facilities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Rose, E. Siemann, R. G. Welzel, and R. J. Zimmerman, 2001: Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region: Prospects for Sustaining Our Ecological Heritage. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Bentz, B. J., and A. M. Jnsson, 2015: Chapter 13: Modeling bark beetle responses to climate change. Ecosystem Health, 5, 20-25, doi:10.1046/j.1526-0992.1999.09903.x. Permission of the copyright owner must be obtained before making use of copyrighted material. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems.7 Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10 In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5)11 suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. There is high confidence in documentation that increases in temperature in the Southeast will result in higher risks of negative impacts on human health, agricultural, and forest production; on natural systems; on the built environment; and on energy demand. USGS Professional Paper 1815. Exposure to high nighttime minimum temperatures reduces the ability of some people to recover from high daytime temperatures, resulting in heat-related illness and death.26 This effect is particularly pronounced in cities, many of which have urban heat islands that already cause elevated nighttime temperatures.27 Cities are taking steps to prevent negative health impacts from heat. As temperatures and sea levels increase, changes in marine and coastal systems are expected to affect the potential for energy resource development in coastal zones and the outer continental shelf. EPA, 2015: Case Study: Water and Wastewater Utilities Planning for Climate Change. Tallahassee, FL. 2: Temperature-related death and illness. Kunkel, K., R. Frankson, J. Runkle, S. Champion, L. Stevens, D. Easterling, and Brooke Stewart, 2017: State Climate Summaries for the United States. Evans, J. M., J. Gambill, R. J. McDowell, P. W. Prichard, and C. S. Hopkinson, 2016: Tybee Island: Sea level rise adaptation plan. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. B., and J. S. Clark, 2016: Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests. Katz, R. W., M. B. Parlange, and C. Tebaldi, Stochastic modeling of the effects of large-scale circulation on daily weather in the southeastern US, Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Streamflows remain well above normal across most of the Southeast. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 10). (see Ch. Center for Progressive Reform White Paper. Duehl, A. J., F. H. Koch, and F. P. Hain, 2011: Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history. No one else can view anything. Climate & Weather Averages in Southeast, District of Columbia, USA. certainty in Key Findings. doi: Smee, D. L., J. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014033, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014033. URL Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea level rise by vertical and horizontal movement across the landscape.125,129,200,201 As sea levels rise in the future, some coastal ecosystems will be submerged and converted to open water, and saltwater intrusion will allow salt-tolerant coastal ecosystems to move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.128,202,203,204,205,206,207,208 Where barriers are present (for example, levees and other coastal infrastructure), the potential for landward migration of natural systems will be reduced and certain coastal habitats will be lost (Ch. Living Marine Resources: National Marine Fisheries Service Concerns, Activities and Needs. 2: Our Changing Climate, Figure 2.26). Australasian Psychiatry, 15, 95-98, doi:10.1080/10398560701701288. Spring- The spring in the Southwest region is cool. A Report by the U.S. Boucek, R. E., E. E. Gaiser, H. Liu, and J. S. Rehage, 2016: A review of subtropical community resistance and resilience to extreme cold spells. Multiple lines of research have shown that global sea levels have increased in the past and are projected to continue to accelerate in the future due to increased global temperature and that higher local sea level rise rates in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have occurred.51,52,53,54,55,56,57,59,61,62, Annual occurrences of high tide flooding have increased, causing several Southeast coastal cities to experience all-time records of occurrences that are posing daily risks.1,52,58,60,61,63,67,68, There is scientific consensus that sea level rise will continue to cause increases in high tide flooding in the Southeast as well as impact the frequency and duration of extreme water level events, causing an increase in the vulnerability of coastal populations and property.1,60,63,67,68, In the future, coastal flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as the frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time.1,2,35,64,65,67,68, Many analyses have determined that extreme rainfall events have increased in the Southeast, and under higher scenarios, the frequency and intensity of these events are projected to increase.19,21,88, Rainfall records have shown that since NCA3, many intense rainfall events (approaching 500-year events) have occurred in the Southeast, with some causing billions of dollars in damage and many deaths.68,82,84, The flood events in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in 2016 and in South Carolina in 2015 provide real examples of how vulnerable inland and coastal communities are to extreme rainfall events.81,85,86, The socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the Southeast is a developing research field.65,71.